About the Agricultural Outlook
The purpose of this website is to bring into the public domain information used and generated by collaborative work between the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations' Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) in the field of agricultural market outlook. The final product of this collaboration is an annual publication presenting projections and related market analysis for some fifteen agricultural products over a ten year horizon.
Benefiting from the commodity, policy and country expertise of organisations, the report analyses world commodity market trends and medium term prospects for the main agricultural products. It shows how these markets are influenced by economic developments and government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence market outcomes.
In addition to OECD countries, the market projections in the report cover a large number of other countries and regions including India, China, Brazil and the Russian Federation, as well as Argentina, South Africa and other developing countries.
The Aglink-Cosimo Model
The main tool in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook process is a partial equilibrium modelling framework. This effort was started by the OECD in the early 1990s through the development of its AGLINK model, an economic model of world agriculture with very detailed agricultural sector representation of OECD countries as well as Argentina, Brazil, China and the Russian Federation. Since 2004, this modelling system has been greatly enhanced through the development by FAO of a similar agricultural model – COSIMO – representing the agricultural sectors in a large number of developing countries.
The AGLINK-COSIMO modelling system is presently one of the most comprehensive partial equilibrium models for global agriculture. The model is one of the tools used in the generation of baseline projections underlying the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook. For many countries agricultural policies are specifically modelled within AGLINK-COSIMO. This makes the model a powerful tool for forward looking analysis of domestic and trade policies through the comparison of scenarios of alternative policy settings against the benchmark of the baseline projections.
The AGLINK-COSIMO website is password protected and accessible only to AGLINK-COSIMO collaborators in national administrations. Through this website users have access to a general description of the model, detailed model documentation, the full set of equations and model parameters, and the results of tests carried out in the process of model validation.
The two organisations
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook is the collaborative work of two of the leading organisations in agriculture and policy research, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. To find out more about our work, we invite you to visit our websites.
If you have any technical issues or questions about the site, please contact the Trade and Agriculture Directorate of the OECD.