Modelling and Statistical Analysis

The Department's work on projections and scenario analysis is supported by the use an international linkage model, INTERLINK. Longer term modelling is sometimes used to assess the impact of different policy settings. Recent examples relate to climate change and population ageing.

What's new

What Drives the NAIRU? Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries

17-Nov-2008

This paper analyses the determinants of structural unemployment rates in a two-stage approach. First, time-varying NAIRUs are estimated for a panel of OECD economies on the basis of Phillips curve equations using Kalman filter techniques. In a second stage, the estimated NAIRUs are regressed on selected policy and institutional variables.

Speed of adjustment to selected labour market and tax reforms

29-Oct-2008

This paper examines the nature and the length of economic adjustments to selected structural reforms, drawing on a variety of approaches: descriptive analysis and simulations using Dynamic General Equilibrium and macro-economic neo-Keynesian models.

Short-term distributional effects of structural reforms: selected simulations in a DGSE framework

29-Oct-2008

This paper examines the short-term distributional effects of a number of tax and labour market reforms in the euro area, drawing on simulations using a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium model.

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EO 84 to be released 25 November 2008

Issue No. 83