Fish - OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020

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After a difficult 2009, characterised by a sharp decline of fish prices and a contraction in demand and trade, the seafood sector expanded again in 2010 and early 2011. This recovery was partly due to higher average fish prices as well as to growing demand. Consumer demand has been particularly strong in developing countries supported by the faster than expected economic upturn.

The average world apparent per capita fish consumption was stable in the period 2008-09, at about 17 kg/year (live weight equivalent), and slightly increased in 2010 due to growing demand. During the base period, fish accounted for about 15.7% of world population intake of animal protein and 6.1% of all protein consumed.

Fish prices have been on the rise in domestic markets as well as in export markets. The FAO Fish Price Index indicates that current fish prices, on average, are higher than ever, in particular for farmed fish. In early 2011, prices of aquaculture products were 23% more than in September 2008. On the other end, capture prices, after a sharp drop during the crisis, have only recently regained pre-crisis price levels.

In 2009, total fish production reached a record 144.6 Mt, with a slight decline of capture fisheries and an increase in aquaculture production. In 2010, capture fisheries further decreased due to lower catches of anchoveta in Latin America, while aquaculture production continued to increase its share in total fish production.

• World fisheries production is projected at 164 Mt in 2020, a growth of about 15% above the average level for 2008-2010. Major increases in the quantity of fish produced will originate from aquaculture. However, for the projection period, the annual growth rate of aquaculture is estimated at 2.8%; a reduction compared to the rate of 5.6% of the previous decade.
  
  
• Fish prices (capture, aquaculture and trade) will increase over the medium term. With the growing price of fish meal and the high price of other feeds, the spread between the price of farmed and wild fish will grow over the medium term.
  
  
• Total fish and fishery products will continue to be highly traded, with about 38% of world fish production exported in 2020. World per capita fish food consumption is projected to reach 17.9 kg per capita in 2020, from 17.1 kg per capita of the average 2008-2010.

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