Agricultural production is expected to increase in the short term, assuming normal weather, as a result
of an expected supply response to current high prices. Commodity prices should fall from the highs of
early 2011, but in real terms are projected to average up to 20% higher for cereals (maize) and up to 30%
for meats (poultry), over the 2011-20 period compared to the last decade. Increases in commodity prices
are now moving down the commodity chain into livestock commodities.
Global agricultural production is projected to grow at 1.7% annually, on average, compared to 2.6% in the
previous decade. Slower growth is expected for most crops, especially oilseeds and coarse grains, which
face higher production costs and slowing productivity growth. Growth in livestock production stays close
to recent trends. Despite the slower expansion, production per capita is still projected to rise 0.7%
annually.
Note: The net agricultural production index is calculated by weighting agricultural production of commodities included in this Outlook with base international reference prices averaged for the period 2004-06, with deduction for feed and seed used for this production. to avoid double counting in the livestock and grains sectors.
