|
The net production index is a summary measure of the growth in gross value of production of all commodities included in the Outlook, net of seed and feed costs which are internal to the sector, all measured at constant international reference prices of 2004-06.
Based on commodities of this Outlook, Brazil is the fastest growing agricultural sector by far, growing by over 40% to 2019, when compared to the 2007-09 base period. Russia and Ukraine are projected to grow 26% and 29%, provided plans and support measure by the respective governments proceed as indicated and bear fruit, marking a significant recovery in production levels.
China and India may also grow significantly by 26% and 21%, respectively. While Australia is projected to grow some 17%, this growth reflects an assumed return to more normal yields; over a longer period of comparison, Australia’s production by 2019 is only some 7% higher than in 2000. Production growth in the US and Canada is projected in the 10-15% range over the same period.
In contrast, over the same period, net agricultural output in the EU-27 will have grown less than 4%. These diverse trends reflect important developments in these countries which may be generating or inhibiting growth.
Net agricultural production for selected countries
(index 2004-06=100)
By region, production measures, on a per capita basis, provide an interesting viewpoint on longer term developments in global agriculture and their potential implications for food supplies. Per capita output has fallen in North Africa and the Middle East, largely due to limited water availability and policies in some countries such as Saudi Arabia to reduce highly subsidised wheat production. Production in the Sub-Sahara region of Africa is expected to be stagnant in per capita terms, as production barely keeps pace with population growth still averaging around 2.2% per year.
In Western Europe, production is also stagnant. Growth in consumption on a per capita basis in this region will need to be met by imports. Latin America is the fastest growing production region, but in per capita terms Eastern Europe, is the fastest growing, because projections assume that in this region’s population numbers will actually decline by over 3% over the Outlook period.
Net agricultural production for regions on a per capita basis
(index 2004-06=100)
Agricultural production is growing much faster outside the OECD area (Figure 3). While world net production of commodities covered in this Outlook will have grown 22% over the period to 2019, production in the OECD area is projected to grow only 10%.
Some country groupings grow about three times as fast, with the Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) group growing by 27%, LDCs by 33% and other developing countries by 29% to 2019. If measured in per capita terms, OECD agricultural production growth is minimal as is production growth by the LDC group.
Net agricultural production for world and economic groups
(index 2004-06=100)
|
