OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

The Agricultural Outlook is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets.

The baseline projection is not a forecast about the future, but rather a plausible scenario based on specific assumptions regarding the macroeconomic conditions, the agriculture and trade policy settings, weather conditions, longer term productivity trends and international market developments. The projections of production, consumption, stocks, trade and prices for the different agricultural products described and analysed cover a ten-year period. The evolution of markets over the outlook period is typically described using annual growth rates or percentage changes for the final year relative to a three-year base period.

The individual commodity projections are subject to critical examination by experts from national institutions in collaborating countries and international commodity organisations prior to their finalisation and publication in this report. The risks and uncertainties around the baseline projections are examined through a number of possible alternative scenarios and stochastic analysis, which illustrate how market outcomes may differ from the deterministic baseline projections.

» Methodology

To find out more about our work, we invite you to visit our websites:
» Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
» Trade and Agriculture Directorate (OECD)

 

Contact us

If you have any technical issues or questions, please contact the OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate at tad.contact@oecd.org.

For questions related to the contents of the publication or on Aglink-Cosimo, please contact tad.contact@oecd.org or EST-Projections@fao.org

The Aglink-Cosimo Model

The Aglink-Cosimo modelling system is a comprehensive partial equilibrium model for global agriculture, and used to generate the baseline projections for many of the countries in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook. This makes the model a powerful tool for analysis of domestic and trade policies through the comparison of scenarios of alternative policy settings against the benchmark of baseline projections. 

» Aglink-Cosimo Model Documentation (pdf)

» EU module of the Aglink-Cosimo modelling system (pdf)

» Partial stochastic analysis with the European Commission’s version of the AGLINK-COSIMO model (pdf)

The Aglink-Cosimo Collaborators website is password protected and accessible only to Aglink-Cosimo collaborators in national administrations. Through this website users have access to a general description of the model, detailed model documentation, the full set of equations and model parameters, and the results of tests carried out in the process of model validation.

» Login to the Aglink-Cosimo Collaborators Site