Introduction to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

The Agricultural Outlook, 2015-2024, is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.

It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets.


Executive summary and key findings from the 2015-2024 edition

  • Diverging price movements at the start of the Outlook
  • Based on market fundamentals, real prices to resume their long-term secular decline
  • Demand for animal protein drives global food markets
  • Flat biofuel production in the United States and the European Union, growth in Brazil and Indonesia
  • Yield improvements drive growth in crop production
  • Export concentration increases market risks for important food
  • Over the decade, at least one severe shock to world markets likely

Prices for crops and livestock products showed diverse trends in 2014. Among crops, two years of strong harvests put further pressure on prices of cereals and oilseeds. Tighter supplies due to factors including herd rebuilding and disease outbreaks supported record high meat prices, while the prices of dairy products dropped steeply from historic highs. Further adjustments to short-term factors are expected in 2015, before the medium-term drivers of supply and demand take hold.

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Special Feature: Brazil

  • Continued productivity improvements in Brazil support fast growing exports.
  • Brazilian agriculture holds opportunities to reduce poverty in rural areas
  • Environmental and conservation initiatives in Brazil are expected to alleviate resource pressure of agricultural growth.

This year’s Outlook contains a special focus on Brazil. This country ranks among the world’s ten largest economies and is the second largest global supplier of food and agricultural products. Brazil is poised to become the foremost supplier of additional global demand, much of it coming from Asia. Supply growth is projected to be driven by continued improvements in productivity, with higher crop yields, some conversion of pasture to cropland and more intensive livestock production. Structural reforms and a reorientation of support towards productivity enhancing investments, for example in infrastructure, could foster these opportunities, as could trade agreements that improve access to foreign markets.

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Presentation of the Outlook